On November 10, 2022, Zero Waste Europe (ZWE) and Eunomia research and consulting announced the release of a new report analyzing the decarbonization pathways for key material sectors and their ability to meet global carbon budgets. The report “Is net zero enough for the materials sector?” states that the material production sector is of significant importance in reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, as it currently accounts for about 25% of global emissions. This sector includes resource extraction and processing of raw materials. The report finds “that published plans for net zero by 2050 in the materials sector are unlikely to be enough to limit warming to 1.5°C” and that “the impact of deploying abatement technologies after 2030 is substantially less effective than more near-term, widespread, commercial deployment.”
The starting point for the report is current production and consumption trajectories, which predict a doubling of the global material use from 2015 to 2060, posing a significant challenge for mitigating the corresponding GHG emissions. The report focuses on the aluminum, concrete, steel, and plastics industries, which together account for 78% of total GHG emissions from the materials production sector. So far, only the aluminum and concrete industries have sector-wide net zero strategies. The steel and plastics industries have yet to create, or at least publicly share, their strategies. The authors used scientific and gray literature to fill the gaps.
Specifically, the plastics industry faces a significant challenge to stay within its remaining carbon budget. According to ZWE and Eunomia, it would require a drastic shift away from fossil fuels to instead use bio-based materials as feedstock, which comes with various challenges. Other publications reviewing the impacts of the plastics and synthetic chemicals industries indicate that net-zero plastics could generally be achieved through a combination of circular technologies, but timing is critical.
The ZWE report highlights that introducing the necessary technological innovations required to implement decarbonization measures in the plastics industry within the remaining GHG budget is imperative. It notes that there is a particularly high risk that emission abatement technologies will not be available in time or will not be as effective as expected, especially for carbon capture and chemical recycling. However, even when taking into account all technological possibilities and uncertainties, the report’s findings suggest that plastic consumption must be reduced to successfully limit cumulative emissions.
For all industries considered, the authors predict that the cumulative GHG budget in 2050 will be exceeded, even under an accelerated adoption scenario. It concludes that “a real reduction in material consumption within each sector, or a significant shift in material consumption to less carbon-intensive sectors, is therefore critical to bridging that gap.” At the same time, the report points out that the potential for recycling and circularity is limited at the materials level. The focus should therefore be more on the product circularity, i.e. the reuse of products, and go beyond waste prevention as a measure of success.
The gap between current trends and 2050 targets that the plastics industry needs to fill is large. However, research shows that reducing the consumption of plastics would not only help to increase the chance of achieving climate targets, but would also contribute to better management of the many other known externalities along the plastics supply chain including negative effects on human health (FPF reported).
Reference
Zero Waste Europe & Eunomia (November 10, 2022). “Is net zero enough for the materials sector?” Zero Waste Europe
Read more
Meys, R, et al. (September 30, 2021). “Achieving net-zero greenhouse gas emission plastics by a circular carbon economy.” Science. DOI: 10.1126/science.abg9853
Center for Global Commons & SYSTEMIQ (September 2022). “Planet positive chemicals.” SYSTEMIQ
